May 09, 2012


Soldier's Pen
By BGen. Alexander Cabales (Ret.)

Scarborough & Chinese creeping assertives

"We will not allow the Chinese to conquer our territory!" So goes the banner on a picture of Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal published on April 24 on Facebook.  LtGen. Anthony Alcantara, the commander of the Northern Luzon Command, who has the overall responsibility of 'defending' that part of Philippine territory, also issued a statement that was enfaced on that same picture.  He said, "We call on all our countrymen to support their military."
That picture in Facebook elicited more than 600 comments within the first 10 days that it was published.  The comments vary from the simply patriotic, "We will fight to the last drop of our blood;" the hilarious, "If we pray to God for intercession and the Chinese will pray to theirs, it will result to a War of the Gods;" stupid, "The Chinese will use the Panatag Shoal as a base for their illegal drugs and imitation products;" irresponsible, "I will kill any Chinese I will meet anywhere;" emotional, "Mga bubo ang mga Intsek at ang papangit pa!;" impractical, "Return US bases to the Philippines;" religious, "Let us just pray and God will not forsake us;" honest, "The Philippines is no match for China in case of war;" and fatalistic, "We can't do anything about it," to describe a few.
The Scarboroug Shoal lcoated  120 nautical miles (220 kilometers) west of Zambales, well within the country’s 200 nautical mile (370 km) exclusive economic zone. 
Photo source: http://www.panoramio.com

Our problem with China on claims over several islands, islets, cays, banks, shoals and reefs in the Kalayaan (Spratly) Group in the West Philippine (South China) Sea started in the late 1994 when the latter covertly occupied Panganiban (Mischief in international maps and Meiji to the Chinese) Reef.  The Reef which is some 150 miles west of Palawan was well within the Philippines 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).  In comparison, it is 620 miles SE of China.  It is even closer to Palawan than the island municipality of Pag-asa which is administratively controlled by the Philippines since 1973.
Prior to Chinese occupation of Panganiban Reef, the Philippines never had problems with any of its expansionist neighbors.  We were host to the biggest US Naval and Air Force bases in Southeast Asia - the Subic Naval Base in Zambales and the Clark Air Base in Pampanga.  These bases were enough deterrence for any aggressive action against our country by another.  Surely the US would automatically get involved and no country is stupid enough to pick a fight with the world's mightiest nation.  The situation changed when in 1991, the Philippine Senate rejected to extend the Military Bases Agreement with the US when it expired on September 16 of that year.   As a consequence, the US Air Force and the US Navy then formally transferred Clark Air Base and the Subic Naval Base in their entirety to the Philippines in 1991 and 1992, respectively, ending almost a century of presence in the region.
The Filipino 'nationalists' wanted a Philippines free from American intervention, whether good or bad.  The Filipinos triumphed in throwing the Americans out of their country.  We thought that we made the right thing in getting rid of the Americans in the name of nationalism and great love of country.  Today we realized that it was not the practical thing to do because after all, we still needed them.  With their departure so did their regular support to the Armed Forces of the Philippines quickly dwindled until it came to almost zero.  The already poorly equipped Philippine military deteriorated some more.
Just within three years after the US left, the Chinese started flexing its muscles in this part of the world now left unprotected.  China became more confident with its dominance in this part of the globe as a result of its growing economic and military strength.  Its awareness of its might in comparison to that of its Asian neighbors was further bolstered by the toning down of the usual anti-China stance of the US, a departure from their past posture against the former.  China also sees the weakness of the Philippine economy and the corollary inability to modernize its military capability.  The Philippines is a country that they can bully and they know that the US will not intervene.
Up to the present, the Philippines was not able to do anything about the Chinese occupation of Panganiban Reef even if the latter continues to develop the place, install hi-tech communication equipment and station troops and military vessels. 
In May 2011, the Philippines also discovered that while Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanlie was enjoying his goodwill visit to the Philippines to improve China-Philippine relations, Chinese boats were busy unloading construction materials near the unoccupied but Philippine controlled Amy Douglas Bank.  Again, all that the Philippines can do is to file diplomatic protests without any positive results.  Our only hope is that our mighty white brother will come to our aid.  As expected though, the US will keep his nose clean by not involving itself in our problem with China.  It has nothing to gain by siding with the Philippines but has plenty to lose economically if it antagonizes China. 
The Philippine Senate did not hide their dismay over the outcome with the discussion over our problems with China between US State Secretary Hillary Clinton and that of our Defense and Foreign Affairs officials.  The US announced that it will not intervene in the conflict but will assist the Philippines in modernizing its navy.  As a matter of fact, they say, the US government is donating a new naval vessel to the Philippines soon. 
What they did not tell the general public was that the donation of that vessel was already in the pipes long before the Panatag Shoal incident.  Looking at it further, the said 'aid' is really nothing - just a 48-year old cutter of the US Coast Guard and a junk just refitted to look like new.  Beggars cannot choose, they say. 
In the end, all that we Filipinos can do is leave it all to God to make our country safe as what some smart members of congress have repeatedly said.  For how could we win over the modern Chinese military? Can we depend on our own military that cannot even defeat a handful of ragtag guerrillas?   As one of my coffee mates said in jest, "If all members of the Chinese military take a pee at the same, the liquid that they produce is already enough to drown the whole Armed Forces of the Philippines!" We have a very weak military because our leaders choose it to be that way. 
China occupied Panganiban Reef in 1994, Amy Douglas Bank in 2011, Panatag Shoal in 2012 and probably many other islets, cays, banks, reefs and shoals within the Philippine claim which we are incapable of monitoring or patrolling.  
Would Palawan or the whole Philippines be far behind?                                   China has adopted a creeping assertiveness in promoting its geo-political-economic ambitions.  They will not stop in Panganiban Reef, Amy Douglas Bank or Panatag Shoal.  If our leaders would not put their acts together and will allow our military to remain the way it is, we may wake up one morning to find ourselves just another province of China!

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